MATHEMATICAL PROGNOSIS OF THE COURSE OF INFECTIOUS MONONUCLEOSIS CAUSED BY EPSHTEIN-BARR VIRUS

Liadova T. I., Pavlikova K. V., Nartov P. V., Martynenko O. V., Dorosh D. M., Malanchuk S. G.

METHODS AND METHODOLOGIES

Scentific article

The study of the role of Epstein-Barr virus (VEB) infection in the development of various human pathological conditions is of great importance. This is due to the significant epidemiological and social significance, as more than 90% of people are infected with WEB when they reach adulthood. The steady growth of WEB-associated diseases in both adults and children, due to the specific tropism of the virus to immunocompetent cells, lifelong persistence and latent course, necessitates the comprehensive study and development of effective treatments. The use of mathematical models as prognostic criteria for the duration of the course and hospitalization with the need for further dispensary observation is a very simple and effective method that can be used in patients of this category. Statistical analysis of data is a necessary component of any medical research. Modern methods of mathematical statistics and packages of applied computer programs provide ample opportunities for statistical data processing. However, when a statistical set is represented by a series of data arranged in time, or when the structure and order of the data are important components of the study, special approaches to statistical analysis come in handy. Purpose: to evaluate the clinical and laboratory parameters in order to develop a mathematical model for predicting the duration of hospitalization of patients with infectious mononucleosis caused by Epstein-Barr virus and evaluate the effectiveness of therapy. Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, 110 patients were examined for infectious mononucleosis, including 58 women (52.7%), men – 52 (47.3%). The mean age of patients was 23.3±4.2 years. The material for the study was the serum of patients obtained in the dynamics of the disease. The complex of examination of patients with IM included clinical and biochemical methods, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, polymerase chain reaction method, imunogram. The results of the research were processed by the method of variation and correlation statistics using the program «Statistica 10.0 for Windows». Conclusions. Based on the assessment of clinical and laboratory parameters of patients with infectious mononucleosis caused by Epstein-Barr virus, a mathematical model was developed to predict the duration of hospitalization and evaluate the effectiveness of therapy.

infectious mononucleosis, Epstein-Barr virus, mathematical model, duration of hospitalization.

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«Bulletin of problems biology and medicine» Issue 3 (161), 2021 year, 220-224 pages, index UDK 616.98:578.825:612.017:575.22

10.29254/2077-4214-2021-3-161-220-224